Scotland | 14th September 2014

Scottish independence: polling update

Four new independence polls have been published since we last took a look at the numbers. Three […]

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Four new independence polls have been published since we last took a look at the numbers. Three were for the major Sunday papers and the fourth was for the Better Together campaign.

On Friday our poll of polls suggested the No campaign were fractionally ahead, 46 to 43 per cent.

The chart below updates those results with three of this weekend’s polls: Survation/Better Together, Opinium/Observer Scotland, and ICM/Sunday Telegraph. [1]

3period

Using a three-period moving average our figures remain largely as they were on Friday, with the No campaign holding a slender lead. As YouGov’s Anthony Wells put it, ‘I think we can reasonably say that the polls are giving NO a genuine but small lead.’

This is despite one poll, ICM’s for the Sunday Telegraph, showing an 8-point Yes lead. Unionists may have hoped its smaller sample size was to blame. All the other polls in our sample quizzed around 1,000 respondents, but ICM only asked around 700 people. However this only increases the margin of error fractionally, from just over 3 per cent normally to just under 4 per cent with 700.

Nevertheless, it was the only poll to show Yes ahead this weekend, which is why the overall picture remains very similar.

The race is still too close to call, and will likely be decided by undecided voters. It appears that around 10 per cent of voters still are.

For more on Scotland you can explore our past posts on how accurately the polls predicted the 2011 Scottish Parliament elections, why the Yes campaign would likely win a second referendum, and how they have out-campaigned unionists.

 


[1] We report figures including undecideds. The Panelbase/Sunday Times poll has so far reported headline numbers excluding undecideds.