The Parties | 22nd October 2014

Poll of Polls: Labour 33, Tories 31, Lib Dems 8, Ukip 16

UPDATE (28/10): Eights polls have been released since Friday, 24 October. Six of them (three by YouGov, […]

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UPDATE (28/10): Eights polls have been released since Friday, 24 October. Six of them (three by YouGov, and one each by ComRes, Opinium and Aschcroft) have shown a tied race.

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Only two by Populus show Labour still in front. May2015′s Poll of Polls now puts both major parties on 32-something, with Ukip on 17.
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Today’s YouGov poll for the Sun, their second of four each week, put the Tories on 32, Labour 33, Lib Dems 8, and Ukip 16.

It is one of four polls making up our rolling four-day average of the polls, which is now updated daily. The others are yesterday’s YouGov’s poll, Populus’s first of the week from Monday (they publish a second on Friday), and Ashcroft’s weekly national poll, also out each Monday.

Explore May2015’s polling data, which dates back to August 1970.

Populus rates the two main parties more highly than YouGov, whose numbers today were very similar to yesterday’s, and Ashcroft finds slightly less support for them. Together they average out at our 33-31 headline (more exact figures: Labour 33.3, Tories 31.2, Lib Dems 7.9 and Ukip 15.5).

Here is how the polls have moved over the past six weeks, since the end of the summer.

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These figures are averaged for each day, rather over four, which shows the sudden spikes, such as the Tories briefly overtaking Labour earlier this month after their conference, or Ukip nearly reaching 20 per cent (one Survation poll put them on 25 per cent on 10 October, but two others that day put them on 16 and 17).

Averaging, or smoothing, the polls over a longer period, and accounting for last week’s polls, tells a similar story: Labour hold a very slender lead over the Tories, and Ukip are now more consistently above 15 per cent rather than below it.

Over the rest of the week we will have two more Sun polls from YouGov tomorrow and Friday, Populus’ second weekly poll on Friday, and then both YouGov’s poll for the Sunday Times and Opinium’s fortnightly poll for the Observer on Sunday.

We will have the latest as they are published – our May2015 “Poll of Polls” is churning through all the numbers to give you the most accurate daily picture.