Six facts stand out from tonight’s poll.
1 Only the Tories and Ukip are thought to have “a strong leader”
32 per cent of voters back Cameron and Farage. Only 14 per cent back Miliband (and 5 per cent Clegg, which is actually 1 per cent more than think much of the Green party’s Natalie Bennett).
2 But the Tories and Ukip are also seen as the nastiest parties
As many voters as think Cameron and Farage strong also think their parties “nasty”, while just 4 per cent think the Greens are. Which would you prefer: nasty and strong or weak and nice?
3 Ukip only trail Labour as the party which “stands up for people like me”
Disaffected voters are finding far more of a home in Ukip than the Lib Dems or Greens, and more people think Farage’s party is on their side than think the Tories are, by 23 to 20 per cent. 28 per cent think Labour are.
4 No one thinks any of the parties keep their promises
59 per cent think none of the parties do. Just 14 per cent think the Tories or Labour do, yet they both poll around 30 per cent, which means half of their voters don’t trust them to keep their promises.
5 The Tories lead slightly on policies, but by far on competence
As we explored on launch last month, the Tories are seen as more trusted stewards on the economy, and arguably lead on “the issues”, going by those YouGov track.
Tonight’s poll echoes that position, suggesting the Tories lead Labour 27 to 23 per cent on having “the best policies for Britain’s future” (with Ukip on 19 per cent and the Lib Dems, fresh off the leak of their manifesto plan, dwindling on 8 per cent).
But perhaps more importantly Cameron’s party leads by 37 to 26 per cent on having “the competence to govern”. Ukip trail on 14 per cent…
6 Ukip are still seen as more unprofessional than the others
35 per cent of voters think they are, but that may not be a negative – part of Ukip’s pitch has been to attack the London-centric, liberal background of the main party leaders.
It is also not drastically different from the number that see the Lib Dems in such a light. 24 per cent do – but it’s far less likely to be a label the party would welcome.