Issues & Ideas | 29th March 2015

Have Labour pulled ahead? It’s complicated

The first post-debate poll has good news for Labour. But don’t get too excited.

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Labour are in good spirits this morning after the first post-debate poll showed the party taking a four-point lead, and putting the party a point ahead in our rolling poll.

It’s worth remembering that it’s only one poll. David Cameron will surely not be so underwhelming in the next debate, this Thursday on ITV – in the Sunday Times, Tim Shipman and James Lyons report that the Prime Minister is studying the performance of Hilary Clinton and Mitt Romney in their multi-candidate debates to learn what to do and not do.

Remember too – spoiler alert for those of you who haven’t yet watched Coalition, the new drama about the last election – that in the first post-debate polling last time, the Liberal Democrats surged to 30 per cent in the polls, only to end up on 23 per cent on the day itself.

Tory MPs were being told last year that they would overhaul Labour in January, then February, then Easter.

And it’s worth noting that YouGov seem more vulnerable than other pollsters to differential response rates – they picked up a bigger swing towards Yes in the last days of that campaign, detected a mini-Tory bounce after David Cameron’s conference speech, and are now showing a debate boost for Ed Miliband. Beneath the headline figures, government approval is basically unchanged, at minus 11 percent compared to minus 12 per cent before the debates. But the Labour leader’s ratings on general approval and economic competence are greatly improved.

On the other hand, Labour’s campaign appears to be finding some rhythm while the Conservatives are beginning to get the jitters. Tory MPs were being told last year that they would overhaul Labour in January, then February, then the Easter Weekend. Labour’s “40 in 40” plan – each day from now until polling day will be defined by a different policy – should keep everyone on the same hymn sheet while giving the party’s big beasts enough moments in the sun to keep everyone happy.

So what we do know is that Miliband’s performance in the debates has put a spring in the step of his activists and parliamentary candidates. It’s not yet clear whether that feelgood factor has spread any further than that.