Featured, Need to Know, Scotland | 29th April 2015

Election 2015: Will the SNP win every seat in Scotland? Their poll lead has only strengthened

The SNP haven’t polled below 43 per cent, or Labour above 30 per cent, in nearly three months.

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This is a quick overview of recent polls north of the border, in the wake of new polls this week by MORI, TNS and Survation, and two last week by the Times/YouGov and Panelbase for the Sunday Times.

Two things stand out. First, the SNP now haven’t polled below 43 per cent – or Labour above 30 per cent – in nearly three months. Second, the SNP are now polling closer to 50 per cent than 40 per cent, while Labour are drifting towards 25 rather than stabilising at around 30.

We talked about this on Sky today.

Indeed, over the past five polls – by five different pollsters – the SNP are averaging 51 per cent, compared to Labour’s 24 per cent. In 2010 Labour won 42 per cent and the SNP 20 per cent.

‘Drifting’ may make it sound like the party isn’t trying. We don’t mean that.

By many accounts, although not one Scottish actor’s, Jim Murphy’s campaign is professional and energetic. But, as one pundit put it recently, “It’s like a really good swimmer trying to escape a tsunami”.

On a uniform swing, the SNP would win every seat in Scotland other than Orkney – if today’s Ipsos MORI poll (SNP 54/Lab 20) happens in 8 days.

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For more on the SNP – see this piece from shortly after the referendum when they started surging in the polls; and then in Feburary when it seemed like they might win more than 50 seats. More recently we’ve looked at the incongruous predictions of academics; recent Ashcroft polls and the 13 closest Scottish seats.