Need to Know | 26th October 2014

Weekend polls: Tories within 1 per cent of Labour

Two polls out are out today, one each in the Observer (Opinium, fortnightly) and Sunday Times […]

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Two polls out are out today, one each in the Observer (Opinium, fortnightly) and Sunday Times (YouGov, weekly).

Both show the two parties are now tied.

This follows YouGov’s Friday poll for the Sun, which showed as much.

As on every Sunday from now until the election, these polls have all been plugged into the May2015 “Poll of Polls”, which keeps a rolling, four-day average of all the polls by the eight major active British pollsters.

You can explore nearly 4,500 polls dating back to 1970 here.

The May2015 model now shows:

  • Conservatives: 32.9
  • Labour: 33.8
  • Lib Dems: 7.3
  • Ukip: 16.3

Here’s how our rolling average has changed since 1 September.

Screen shot 2014-10-26 at 13.41.30

You can explore the six polls which make up our sample using the pie charts below.

Yet our homepage headline argues that “The polls suggest a majority Labour government” – how is this possible in a tied race?

On launch last month we looked at how the boundaries and clustered turnout hand Labour a 35-40 seat advantage if the two parties are tied in the popular vote.

The effect of the SNP surge in Scotland, and Ukip winning more seats than traditional prediction models suggest, could change our headline, but days like today are a reminder to Conservatives of the skewed board they are playing on.