It’s being widely reported that yesterday’s STV poll used uniform national swing to predict that Labour will lose all but 4 of their Scottish seats in May 2015.
The broadcaster used our mapping tool – available at may2015.com/seats – to turn their poll, which put the SNP on 52 per cent and Labour on 23, into a seat prediction.
STV’s press release said that “The poll assumes a uniform swing across Scotland”, but you can see it doesn’t:
Uniform swing predicts that Labour would lose all but one of their seats in Scotland, with the SNP winning 57.
STV must have instead used the “Strong Transition” model we host on the site, which gives the 54-seat SNP prediction.
If we actually use the model everyone is reporting, from the Guardian, and Sky to Survation, Labour’s predicament is even worse.