Need to Know | 31st October 2014

LATEST: Labour would only win 1 not 4 Scottish seats under uniform swing

It’s being widely reported that yesterday’s STV poll used uniform national swing to predict […]

Photo: May2015

By and

It’s being widely reported that yesterday’s STV poll used uniform national swing to predict that Labour will lose all but 4 of their Scottish seats in May 2015.

The broadcaster used our mapping tool – available at may2015.com/seats – to turn their poll, which put the SNP on 52 per cent and Labour on 23, into a seat prediction.

STV’s press release said that “The poll assumes a uniform swing across Scotland”, but you can see it doesn’t:

Uniform swing predicts that Labour would lose all but one of their seats in Scotland, with the SNP winning 57.

Screen Shot 2014-10-31 at 13.24.06

STV must have instead used the “Strong Transition” model we host on the site, which gives the 54-seat SNP prediction.

Screen Shot 2014-10-31 at 13.45.00

If we actually use the model everyone is reporting, from the Guardian, and Sky to Survation, Labour’s predicament is even worse.

LAB-1-Seat