Need to Know | 14th November 2014

How have the polls changed in the past six weeks?

We’re keeping track of all the polls every day here on May2015. How have […]

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We’re keeping track of all the polls every day here on May2015. How have they changed since Oct 1, as the conference season drew to a close and the march towards the election began?

We keep track of all the polls published by the eight major active British pollsters. You can see exactly which polls make up our rolling average here.

Here’s how the parties have spiked, dipped and dived in the past six weeks. This graph shows averages the polls day-by-day, so it’s relatively “noisy”.

The graph below displays our rolling 4-day average.

This is what we use on the May2015 homepage and for our seat projections, which are currently show Labour far ahead on seats, even though the parties are tied (demonstrating the 35-40 seat advantage our currently system gives them).

This projection includes all of Ashcroft’s 89 seat-by-seat polls, which we have brought together and mapped here, but ignores the SNP surge. You can predict how that might wipe out many of Labour’s 40 Scottish seats here.