State of the race

Devised and created by Tom Monk & Harry Lambert

Can any party win a majority?

Who is going to win the UK general election? There are 650 seats in the House of Commons. A party needs to win one more than half to form a majority government. 16 of the 18 governments formed since the Second World War have been majorities.

2010 was one of the rare exceptions. The Conservatives won more votes than Labour did under Tony Blair in 2005, but they are disadvantaged by our voting system. They only won 307 seats – 19 short of a majority.

But who will win this year's election? Every day, our election forecasting-machine is using the latest polls to make a prediction. First, we work out what the national polls imply will happen in every seat, and then we separate any seats Lord Ashcroft has polled. He is polling the election's most marginal – or closely fought – seats. They will decide the election. We plug them into our model, and then adjust them as national polls change.

Scroll down to see our predictions for every seat, or compare May2015 to other forecasts (including the latest election odds) and make your own prediction. (Read on for a full explantion of our model.)

May2015's forecast and how it compares

May 7

 

ELECTION FORECAST

7 May

ELECTIONS ETC

7 May

POLL OBSERVATORY

7 May

THE GUARDIAN

7 May

LADBROKES ODDS

7 May

  IMPLIED BY POLLS ASHCROFT SEATS OVERALL PREDICTION (±2010)            
Conservative 0 0 0 278 285 271 273 285.5
Labour 0 0 0 267 262 273 273 266.5
Liberal Democrat 0 0 0 27 25 24 27 25.5
UKIP 0 0 0 1 3 2 3 3.5
SNP 0 0 0 53 53 55 52 50.5
Green 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1
Other 0 0 0 23 22 21 21 17.5
RESULT HUNG HUNG HUNG HUNG HUNG

Technically, 326 is a majority. In practice, 323 is.

Choose a model and a scenario

Include Ashcroft polls? Include by-elections?
Uniform National Swing Electoral Calculus' Strong Transition

See how many seats each party would win

You can create your own prediction by changing the vote shares in the boxes (including in Scotland)

The numbers need to add to 100, so you may need to take away from one party before you add to another.

GB-wide
Scotland
England & Wales

The "Others" are 3 Plaid Cymru and 1 George Galloway.

18 Northern Ireland seats not included (main parties: 8 DUP, 5 Sinn Fein and 3 SDLP).


May 2015 Twitter

Which seats would each party win?

Only around 150 seats matter in May. Track them all below. They are listed in order of vulnerability, so those we are predicting to be the "most marginal" in May are at the top.

You can compare our prediction for each seat against its majority in 2010, and see which seats the parties are set to win, lose and hold. (For non-Ashcroft seats, we use an alternative to uniform swing developed by Electoral Calculus.)

Ashcroft polls in English and Welsh seats change over time as national polls change, but Scottish seats are currently static.

Here's a map of the 146 seats Ashcroft has polled. Click here for a complete guide to predictions about Scotland and the SNP.

Conservative 0 seats

Seat 2010 majority (%) Predicted majority (%) Second party

Labour 0 seats

Seat 2010 majority (%) Predicted majority (%) Second party

Liberal Democrat 0 seats

Seat 2010 majority (%) Predicted majority (%) Second party

UKIP 0 seats

Seat 2010 majority (%) Predicted majority (%) Second party

SNP 0 seats

Seat 2010 majority (%) Predicted majority (%) Second party

Green 0 seats

Seat 2010 majority (%) Predicted majority (%) Second party

Other 0 seats

Seat 2010 majority (%) Predicted majority (%) Second party

Northern Ireland 0 seats

Seat 2010 majority (%) First party Second party