Featured, Need to Know, Scotland | 29th April 2015

Election 2015: Will the SNP win every seat in Scotland? Their poll lead has only strengthened

This is a quick overview of recent polls north of the border, in the wake of new polls this week by MORI, TNS and Survation, and two last week by the Times/YouGov and Panelbase for the Sunday Times.

Two things stand out. First, the SNP now haven’t polled below 43 per cent – or Labour above 30 per cent – in nearly three months. Second, the SNP are now polling closer to 50 per cent than 40 per cent, while Labour are drifting towards 25 rather than stabilising at around 30.

We talked about this on Sky today.

Read more
The SNP will need a swing of more than 15 per cent to win more than 20 seats.
Featured, Scotland | 16th December 2014

Why the SNP could struggle to win more than 20 Labour seats

Jim Murphy, Labour’s new leader in Scotland, has wasted no time in signalling the extent of his ambition. He told the BBC on Sunday that he is “determined” his party will not lose a single seat to the SNP at the general election. This is despite a string of opinion polls suggesting Labour is destined for near-wipeout across Scotland.

Murphy’s pledge is the kind of bold talk a newly-appointed leader can get away with in their honeymoon period. But it’s also the sort of announcement Sir Humphrey Appleby of Yes, Minister would describe as “courageous”, meaning foolhardy. “A controversial policy will lose votes,” Sir Humphrey explained, “whilst a courageous one will lose the election”.

Labour is clearly facing a major fight in Scotland. It is one that up until a couple of months ago it did not expect, and for which it is not really prepared.

Read more
In the end independence was comfortably rejected.
Scotland | 19th September 2014

Scotland has voted No to independence: what now for the key players?

Scotland has voted No to independence. But following a tight campaign, its position within the Union won’t remain unchanged. What happens next and what does it mean for the key players?

David Cameron

Prior to the result, the Prime Minister repeatedly insisted that he wouldn’t be resigning in the event of a Yes vote. Here was his take on the matter, as reported by my colleague George Eaton:

“My name is not on the ballot paper. What’s on the ballot paper is ‘does Scotland want to stay in the United Kingdom, or does Scotland want to separate itself from the United Kingdom?’. That’s the only question that will be decided on Thursday night. The question about my future will be decided at the British general election coming soon.”

Read more
Place your bets.
Scotland | 18th September 2014

Where should you put your money ahead of tonight’s result?

Voting is well underway in the Scottish referendum but there is plenty of time to place a bet on tonight’s results.

We recently took a look at some of the characters who make their living from political betting. There are not the only ones speculating on the future of the union: the referendum is set to be the biggest political betting event in the UK’s history, with more than £40 million at stake.

What are the best bets still out there? We have used William Hill’s slate, but Ladbrokes, Coral, PaddyPower and BetFair are among those offering similar numbers.

Read more

Featured articles