In two days 35.0 per cent of Great Britain is going to vote Tory, with 32.6 per cent voting Labour. But that result will give the Tories only two more seats than Labour, and an ‘anti-Tory’ majority will exist in the House. Ed Miliband is the most likely post-election PM.
That is the conclusion of four academics – ‘Polling Observatory’ – who have been offering election predictions on May2015 for the past two months. Before the campaign started, Observatory suggested Labour would just about win the most seats. After the first half of the campaign, they thought little had changed. Now they think the Tories have pulled ahead in the national vote, but think that will translate into a minimal Tory seat advantage.
That will leave Labour as head of the most likely post-election bloc, because the SNP and other ‘anti-Tory’ parties will collectively hold a majority of seats in the House (323). This forecast contrasts with May2015’s own forecast, which predicts a similarly small Tory seat but wouldn’t be if we were predicting so large a Tory poll win, as well as numerous other forecasts which are more favourable to the Tories.