The exit poll will be out very shortly, and then we’ll have a good idea (or a false one). But first, here’s the game. No one is going to win an overall majority, so it’s all about who can cobble together 323 seats – the number needed for a majority – by banding together with other parties.
Second, Labour seem the most likely to win that game. May2015’s Poll of Polls, which has averaged all the latest polls since September, has finally finished adding numbers up. It’s conclusion? The Tories are going to win 33.8 per cent of the vote, and Labour are going to win 33.7.
This election is as close as everyone has long advertised. And it will close on seats too. May2015’s model predicts the Tories will win 273 seats, with Labour on 268. But, remember, that isn’t the game. Who can rely on other parties to vote with them, and get to 323 seats?