Need to Know

Miliband for PM.
Need to Know | 7th May 2015

Election 2015: Who is going to win the 2015 general election?

The exit poll will be out very shortly, and then we’ll have a good idea (or a false one). But first, here’s the game. No one is going to win an overall majority, so it’s all about who can cobble together 323 seats – the number needed for a majority – by banding together with other parties.

Second, Labour seem the most likely to win that game. May2015’s Poll of Polls, which has averaged all the latest polls since September, has finally finished adding numbers up. It’s conclusion? The Tories are going to win 33.8 per cent of the vote, and Labour are going to win 33.7.

This election is as close as everyone has long advertised. And it will close on seats too. May2015’s model predicts the Tories will win 273 seats, with Labour on 268. But, remember, that isn’t the game. Who can rely on other parties to vote with them, and get to 323 seats?

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Presumably a polling station is nearby.
Need to Know | 7th May 2015

Election 2015: The 10 seats to watch on election night

This piece appears in this week’s issue of the New Statesman.

There isn’t one big election happening in May, there are 650 small ones. That’s how many constituencies there are in the UK. We can be fairly certain how 500 or so of the seats will vote; the election will be decided in the other 150. Here are ten of the most crucial.

Note: for more on the key seats, see our break down of the Tory-Labour marginals that will decide the election.

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The polls were fairly accurate in 2010, but were too optimistic on the Lib Dems.
Featured, Need to Know | 6th May 2015

Election 2015: How accurate have eve-of-election polls been in the past?

Polls published on the eve of a general election do not have a good pedigree. It’s not just their infamous performance in 1992 that counts against them, though that remains the benchmark for inaccuracy.

Their record at every election in modern times has been patchy at best, and there has only ever been one instance in recent history of a pollster correctly forecasting vote share for each of the three main parties.

Some have come close, however, and this year we’re likely to see a record number of companies publishing eve-of-election polls. Which should we treat with the most credibility?

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Miliband for PM.
Featured, Need to Know | 6th May 2015

Election 2015: Exclusive poll reveals who has legitimacy, what voters care about and the best PM

Polls open in less than 24 hours. Seven new eve-of-election polls are due later today. We’ve had seven in the past 24 hours, with most suggesting the tied race May2015 has long forecast (but some evidence that phone polls still tell a different story). The maths still favours Miliband, with the Tories projected to win around 280 seats and Labour 267, but David Cameron could still survive.

We released our latest election poll last night, carried out by BMG Research. Now we are releasing far more findings from BMG’s research.

Who has legitimacy in a hung parliament – the party with the most votes or most seats? Who would make the best Prime Minister? Would Nicola Sturgeon make a better PM than Ed Miliband? What do voters care about, and how does that change depending on who they support, what kind of work they do or how old they are? We have answers.

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