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David Cameron is headed back to Downing Street at this rate.
Breaking News, Featured | 8th May 2015

Election 2015: The exit poll is believable – and is right so far.

The exit poll is believable. For it to be right, two key and unexpected things seem to have happened.

First, the Tories have held onto far more seats in England than we thought they would. Rather than losing more than thirty to Labour, they may have lost as few as a dozen (or even less). They may have even won a few seats from Labour, but we are guessing that there has been a net loss to Labour of around ten. That would mean the Tory seat total rises from the low 270s, as we had expected, into the high 290s.

But the exit poll says the Tories have won 316 seats. Who are the other 15-20 unexpected wins coming from? The Lib Dems. That is the second shock. They seem to have lost many more seats to the Tories than we expected. The party’s supposed ‘incumbency effect‘, with popular local MPs overcoming the Lib Dems’ national collapse, doesn’t seem to have materialised.

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New polls suggest Miliband could be PM – if incumbency and legitimacy doesn't stop him.
Breaking News, Featured | 5th May 2015

Election 2015: New exclusive poll puts Labour and Tories on exactly 33.7 per cent each

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This race couldn’t be closer. That is the conclusion suggested by BMG Research’s latest election poll for May2015 – their second and final poll before this Thursday’s election.

The polls open in less than 36 hours, and BMG is the latest pollster to suggest a very close race, in contrast to half a dozen phone polls which last week showed the Tories were now polling 34-36 per cent and Labour only 30-32 per cent.

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Cameron leads - but can he hold power?
Breaking News, Featured | 29th April 2015

Election 2015: New exclusive poll puts Tories three points ahead of Labour

Who is going to win the general election, now only eight days away? A new first-time poll, published exclusively on May2015, suggests the Tories are now three points ahead of Labour.

The online poll, fieldwork for which mainly took place over the weekend and concluded on Monday, puts the Tories on 35 per cent and Labour on 32 per cent. It was carried out by BMG Research, a long-time social research company who are now moving into political polling.

The poll chimes with a number of recent surveys which have put the Tories in the lead. On Monday ICM/Guardian put the Tories ahead by 3 points (and also showed a 35/32 race), while Survation put the Tories ahead by 3 and 4 points last week in separate polls for the Mail on Sunday and Mirror. ComRes also put Cameron’s party in front by 4 points a week ago, while Ashcroft’s most recent polls have put them ahead by 4 and 6 points.

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Nicola Sturgeon is going to be PM by 2020 at this rate.
Breaking News, Featured | 17th April 2015

Election 2015: Stunning Ashcroft polls show the SNP could win every seat in Scotland

Lord Ashcroft, the billionaire Tory peer turned pollster, has released his third batch of Scottish constituency polls.

They are more stunning than the “sensational” first round of results he published two and a half months ago. They show that Jim Murphy, the leader of Scottish Labour, and Douglas Alexander, Labour’s shadow Foreign secretary, are both likely to lose their seats, and suggest Labour will lose almost all of their seats north of the border.

They also show that, despite an ‘incumbency effect’, Lib Dem MPs like Charles Kennedy and Jo Swinson also have little hope of keeping their seats, and that the Lib Dems will lose almost all of their 11 Scottish seats.

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