May2015

Poll of Polls

5-day weighted average

CON

33.8

(0)

LAB

33.7

(+0.1)

UKIP

12.6

(-0.1)

LIB

9.2

(+0.1)

GRN

4.6

(-0.1)

ICM

May 7

35

(0)

34

(-1)

11

(0)

9

(0)

4

(+1)

Populus

May 7

33

(-1)

33

(-1)

14

(+1)

10

(0)

5

(0)

Our election-forecasting machine uses all the latest national and constituency polls to predict the election.

Polls as of May 7

  IMPLIED BY POLLS ASHCROFT SEATS OVERALL PREDICTION
Conservative 0 0 0
Labour 0 0 0
Liberal Democrat 0 0 0
UKIP 0 0 0
SNP 0 0 0
Green 0 0 0
Other 0 0 0
RESULT

Latest coverage

Curtice has been running the exit poll since 1992, which shocked pundits on election night.
Curtice has been running the exit poll since 1992, which shocked pundits on election night.
Featured, Features | 8th June 2015

John Curtice: The man behind the only poll that was right

It’s “virtually inconceivable that Labour can win the next election by just doing well in England and Wales – it’s just brutal arithmetic,” John Curtice begins when we meet three weeks after the election, on a cloudy afternoon in St James’ Park.

Curtice, 62, is the only forecaster any journalist still listens to. He is the man behind the exit poll, which flashed up on TV screens at 10pm on election night and sent parties, pollsters and pundits into a frenzy. The story it told contrasted completely with more than 700 polls published in the previous year, 99 per cent of which said the Tories had no hope of a majority.

Its accuracy has left pre-election polling on life support. Journalists don’t trust it, pundits ridicule it and newspapers no longer want to publicise it. But the exit poll has never been more revered. Half a dozen men were behind it this year, but it is Curtice who has led the group for more than two decades.

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How much can we predict with just a few stats and a computer?
How much can we predict with just a few stats and a computer?
Featured, Features | 4th June 2015

If polls are wrong, can a handful of stats tell us how people will vote?

If you hadn’t heard, the polls didn’t predict last month’s general election. Or rather, they very accurately predicted support for the SNP, Ukip, and Greens – and, at a national level, the Lib Dems – but failed to predict what really mattered: support for the Tories and Labour.

More than 500 national polls were published in the year before the election. 99 per cent of them suggested the Tories had no hope of winning a majority. Poll after poll implied both parties would win around 34 per cent. In the end Labour won 31 and the Tories 38.

Were the polls really wrong? Sure, but our approach to them was the real problem. We all treated polls as very specific when they were, and only ever can be, impressionistic. The magic of polling is that you can ask 1,000 people who they will vote for and, 19 times out of 20, their answers will be within 4 percentage points of representing actual British opinion.

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David Cameron is headed back to Downing Street at this rate.
David Cameron is headed back to Downing Street at this rate.
Breaking News, Featured | 8th May 2015

Election 2015: The exit poll is believable – and is right so far.

The exit poll is believable. For it to be right, two key and unexpected things seem to have happened.

First, the Tories have held onto far more seats in England than we thought they would. Rather than losing more than thirty to Labour, they may have lost as few as a dozen (or even less). They may have even won a few seats from Labour, but we are guessing that there has been a net loss to Labour of around ten. That would mean the Tory seat total rises from the low 270s, as we had expected, into the high 290s.

But the exit poll says the Tories have won 316 seats. Who are the other 15-20 unexpected wins coming from? The Lib Dems. That is the second shock. They seem to have lost many more seats to the Tories than we expected. The party’s supposed ‘incumbency effect‘, with popular local MPs overcoming the Lib Dems’ national collapse, doesn’t seem to have materialised.

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Miliband for PM.
Miliband for PM.
Need to Know | 7th May 2015

Election 2015: Who is going to win the 2015 general election?

The exit poll will be out very shortly, and then we’ll have a good idea (or a false one). But first, here’s the game. No one is going to win an overall majority, so it’s all about who can cobble together 323 seats – the number needed for a majority – by banding together with other parties.

Second, Labour seem the most likely to win that game. May2015’s Poll of Polls, which has averaged all the latest polls since September, has finally finished adding numbers up. It’s conclusion? The Tories are going to win 33.8 per cent of the vote, and Labour are going to win 33.7.

This election is as close as everyone has long advertised. And it will close on seats too. May2015’s model predicts the Tories will win 273 seats, with Labour on 268. But, remember, that isn’t the game. Who can rely on other parties to vote with them, and get to 323 seats?

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David Cameron enjoying his shock election triumph.
David Cameron enjoying his shock election triumph.
13th May 2015

Social media and the election: what have we learned?

The failure of the professional polling industry to predict the outcome of this general election has been well documented, and has no doubt prompted a great deal of soul-searching.

What has received less attention, however, is that for those hoping social media can be used to predict election results, there has been similar disappointment.

Social media has its challenges as a predictor – for example, it is no secret that Twitter users are disproportionately young and well educated, automatically skewing any analysis.

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Featured articles

May2015 was the New Statesman's site for the UK's May 2015 general election.

We launched on September 9, 2014, and published more than 350 pieces over the next eight months. In our first month we had 40,000 unique pageviews. In our final month we had 2.9 million, and 1.3 million people around the world visited the site.

Unique pageviews per day May 2015 traffic

You can explore our interactive data pages, which tracked all the latest polls and predictions, and read our pieces, from our final analyses of the race to our long-running series of features on key seats around the UK.

May2015 was created by Harry Lambert, Tom Monk and Charlie Morris for the New Statesman and Progressive Media.

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